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Khamenei; admitting the defeat or inviting to revolt

Mojtaba Vahedi
Mojtaba Vahedi
Ali khamenei who had recently invited the opponents of the system to participate in the elections, in a meeting with the officials involved in the elections show of February 22 openly stamped to confirm the actions of the guardian council in extirpating the candidates. Repeating his ridiculous words “Even those who disagree with the system should participate in the elections” said ”Of course it doesn’t mean to send people who don’t believe in the system to Majlis (parliament).” What is understood in the first look at this comment is that Khamenei takes it for granted that at least in some constituencies the number of people who don’t believe in the system is so high that can exceed the number of the advocates of the system and can send their favorite candidates to Majlis. In fact Khamenei confesses that although the regime’s candidates access the costly media and enjoy various supports, they can not compete with those who for any reason are famous to be the system’s opponents. In other words, what makes the leader of Islamic Republic worried is his awareness of one truth: “being famous as the system’s opponent by itself attracts many votes for the candidates.” Therefore, Khamenei in a preventive measure ordered to leave them out from the election competitions. Khamenei also reveals his concerns that this group who enter Majlis will not be in minority and can influence the process of making decisions in the legislative power. Let’s pay attention to this part of his speech: “Nowhere in the world people who don’t believe in the origin of the system of that country are let into the decision making centers.” Of course, this claim has its own place of discussion as well and it is not clear what Khamenei’s criterion to use the phrase “nowhere in the world” is. However, the recent speech of the Islamic Republic leader reflects the two above mentioned concerns.

What is done in the process of considering the competencies is beyond the expressed concern of Khamenei. Many people are left out of the list of candidates with the excuse of lack of attainment of competency and basically their disagreement with the system has not been under consideration. In the previous show of elections of Majlis Ahmad Jennati, and Ali Khamenei emphasized this point that “lack of attainment of competency of people to be a Majlis deputy does not mean their incompetency to accept other responsibilities and positions.” So we can say by certainty that Khamenei is in such instability that he is worried about even impartial people entering Majlis and he thinks by augmentation of his instability these individuals will be a trouble for him as well.

But assuming to accept the speech and reasoning of Khamenei, anyone may still have one question in mind. Khamenei admits the existence of opponents of the system, nevertheless, he doesn’t leave any legal or civil way for them to express or use their opinions. These speeches are made while Khamenei shamelessly supports the right of protest in other countries by holding street gatherings. Suggesting to hold referendum to acquire the opinions of the majority of people in some other countries is one of the other speech-shows of Khamenei to pretend to be democrat. But when it is turn for the internal protesters and critics he orders to suppress the street demonstrations and also deprives dissident candidates of being elected. It appears that he likes the catalyst-like role of the reformists, too, and is sure that as long as they exist, the duty of keeping the protesting strata and the critics busy will not be refrained. This feeling of confidence increases his courage to support the process of rejecting competencies so openly.

It seems that the role playing of the reformists will make Khamenei successful to accomplish the project of elimination in the February 22 elections. However, I have no doubt that by the commencement of the tenth parliament the reformists’ being cheated and their accompaniment with the leader to deceive the majority of people will be evident to everyone. At that time the lowly role of the reformists in “immunization of Khamenei’s regime” will be thwarted as well. On the other hand, the inescapable economic crises ahead which are the result of the decrease of the price of oil and duration of the extortion of guardian army and the mafia band of the leader together with disappointment from many times of trusting the “reformist pseudo-critics” will lead to an unpredictable future for Iran.

It can be guessed that the result of the ridiculous behavior and words of the leader and losing the trust on reformist alternative potentially will expose Iran’s society to kind of disturbance. Islamic Republic System has always had ways to ruin the public trust toward its critics and opponents and of course they also collaborated with the system to disrepute them. Some of the cultural, political, and religious dissidents who didn’t collaborate with the deceitful trend of the system unfortunately are under joint pressure of the two main wings of the regime and some internal pseudo-critics. In the last three decades the heads of the system have believed that lack of a reputed opposition can insure their political life. But will this unchanged strategy and other changeable solutions which have been practiced in different ways in the last two decades still insure the political life of the system of guardianship of jurists? The regrettable submission of the reformists and declaring that they will take part in the elections unconditionally has relieved the leader for the next month elections. But won’t the recent words of Khamenei and closing all peaceful ways for the opponents to express themselves, which is an indirect permission for an uncontrollable disturbance, cause changes in conditions?

I regret to say that if the internal political groups do not use the last existing possibilities to rebuild public trust toward them, then the remoteness or nearness of this future is no longer determined by the management and policy of political groups inside the country but the international conditions, the rate of feeling danger from groups like ISIS and also rate of badness of the economy of the country because of the desires of economic mafia of the leader to seize national wealth more and more. I will write about this again.

Mojtaba Vahedi

This Article was translated to English by the Editorial Board of Center for a Democratic Iran